000
AXNT20 KNHC 131124
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 
8N13W TO 3N20W AND 1N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N22W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 25W. THE ITCZ REMAINS FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 1S BETWEEN 26W AND 38W...AND THEN TO 1S41W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN
5W AND 9W...AND FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 14W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 7N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
RESULTANT UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. AN 
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WAS IN THE EASTERN PART OF 
LOUISIANA SIX HOURS AGO NOW IS ALONG 87W/88W FROM 28N TO 32N...
NEAR SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE 
EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN 
CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
CONSIST OF 20 KNOT EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AND SEA 
HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. 
PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT4 AND MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE 
DETAILS ABOUT THE FORECAST CONDITIONS FOR THE TIME PERIOD
FROM 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE BASE OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT IS MOVING 
TOWARD 70W IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS CLOSE TO THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE...NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE GREATER 
ANTILLES TO 22N BETWEEN 59W AND 71W. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY 
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS 
ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 73W. THE MARINE 
CONDITIONS ARE FOR A FORECAST IN 12 HOURS OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 
20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET IN THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE. THE FORECASTS FOR 24 HOURS AND 48 HOURS PUT 
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OF 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM
8 TO 9 FEET IN THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN 
SEA...INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. PLEASE REFER TO THE 
MIAOFFNT3 AND MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 71W/72W FROM HAITI NORTHWARD 
BEYOND 32N. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES 
THROUGH 32N59W 23N68W 25N75W...CURVING NORTHWESTWARD ON TOP OF 
THE BAHAMAS TO THE EAST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 
120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N56W TO 25N59W AND 22N63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE 
GREATER ANTILLES TO 22N BETWEEN 59W AND 71W. BROAD SURFACE 
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 60W. A 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 36N36W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 27N23W 20N2731W TO 6N32W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT