000 AXNT20 KNHC 122353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU APR 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W TO 1N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N24W ALONG 1N37W TO THE EQUATOR AT 42W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2N47W. VERY STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OVER W AFRICA S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. OVER WATER...SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-6N BETWEEN 7W-15W...AND FROM EQUATOR-2N BETWEEN 26W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 90W SUPPORTING A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE ERN CONUS CENTERED OVER KENTUCKY PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO FLORIDA NEAR 27N81W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 26N84W 27N87W BECOMING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO THE COAST OF TEXAS AT 30N94W...AS OF 2100 UTC. NO SHOWERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE GULF BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS OVER SW LOUISIANA. THE FRONT IS WEAKENING QUICKLY OVER THE GULF WATERS WHERE ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW IS PRESENT AROUND THE RIDGE TO THE N. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES THAT WIND SPEEDS ARE LIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE FAR WRN PORTION ALONG THE SRN TEXAS COAST. RETURN FLOW OVER THE WRN GULF IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EWD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR ALOFT IN SWLY FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED N OF ERN SOUTH AMERICA IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND ERN CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA IN THE W ATLC. AN AREA OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN COVERING THE NRN GULF FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS AND IS STILL AFFECTING THE SMALL AREA THAT IS RECEIVING RAIN. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS MUCH OF COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WITH SOME NEAR THE COASTLINES. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH LIGHTER WINDS IN THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN OVER THE NRN CARIBBEAN AND BEGIN TO IMPACT AREAS FARTHER E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA GETS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE W ATLC WHICH WILL MOVE EWD IMPACTING THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ALONG 74W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 32N64W ALONG 26N73W CROSSING THE NW BAHAMAS AT 27N78W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA AT 27N80W...AS OF 2100 UTC. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS. THE MAIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FARTHER E UNDER THE AREA OF STRONGEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 26N67W TO 21N70W IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 21N BETWEEN 55W-65W...AS WELL AS ACROSS NRN HISPANIOLA AND THE WATERS IMMEDIATELY TO THE N OF THE ISLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 53W SUPPORTING A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH THAT DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM SPAIN TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N17W TO W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 11N33W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON