000
AXNT20 KNHC 120620 CCA
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU APR 12 2012

CORRECTED FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0415 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL BORDER AREA OF 
GUINEA NEAR 9N13W...TO 6N17W...TO 1N26W AND 1N28W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 1N28W TO 2N36W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 46W. 
THE ITCZ EVENTUALLY CONTINUES TO 1S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 20W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN
20W AND 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...FROM A TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF 30N...COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT USED TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 
THE BULLETIN AREA. RETURN FLOW HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF IN THE 
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 84W. A 1019 MB SURFACE HIGH 
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N92W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 
1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF 
THE AREA. THE MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS SHOWS THAT
EAST0-TO-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 20 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 
8 FEET.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW OF 
THE TROUGH COVERS THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF 
HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IS SOUTHWESTERLY 
ACROSS THE AREA. ONE SURFACE TROUGH GOES FROM THE SOUTHERN 
COASTAL AREA OF JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W TO 13N81W. A SECOND SURFACE 
TROUGH IS ALONG 26N70W TO 21N71W...STILL JUST TO THE NORTH OF 
THE NORTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. ANY PRECIPITATION IS TO THE 
NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES BETWEEN 60W AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA 
NEAR 77W. NO SUSTAINED 20 KNOT WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT3 AND MIAHSFAT2 
BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO 
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W
20N60W...INTO THE MONA PASSAGE. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS MOVING 
THROUGH THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A COLD 
FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N71W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 28N.
A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 
COLD FRONT FROM 28N TO 32N. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N70W
TO 21N71W...STILL JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST OF 
HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 29N57W 25N64W
20N74W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N68W 32N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND
75W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W
29N58W 26N61W. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION JUST
RELATED ONLY TO THE STATIONARY FRONT...BASED ONLY ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 38W/39W FROM 11N BEYOND 32N.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N8W IN MOROCCO TO
24N14W 16N30W AND 12N43W. POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN AFRICA TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 5W AND 10W.
   
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT