000 AXNT20 KNHC 091713 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON APR 9 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 6N11W AND CONTINUES TO 1N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 1N17W TO EQ20W TO 1N40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 6N-2N BETWEEN 5W-10W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-2S BETWEEN 31W-35W... AND FROM 3N-EQ BETWEEN 35W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 4N-2S BETWEEN 46W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR 35N91W PRODUCING 10-15 KT EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. A THIN LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 20N. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH MOSTLY SUBSIDENCE IS NOTED. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 20N64W TO N HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO N OF 15N W OF 68W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 17N82W TO 21N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS TO INCLUDE MOST OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A LAX SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AREA IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. A BAND OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC TO PANAMA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT... ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 75W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALONG THE COAST OF GEORGIA ALONG 32N78W 31N81W PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 29N W OF 77W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N70W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N53W TO 22N60W TO N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 20N64W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 27N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 52W-54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 40N37W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO 25N43W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-80W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONTS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N25W SUPPORTING THE E ATLANTIC LOW. EXPECT...THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA