000 AXNT20 KNHC 091123 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON APR 9 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 2N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N16W...TO 1N18W 1N23W...2N32W... AND 2N39W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE MEXICO RIDGE BLENDS INTO WESTERLY WIND FLOW NEAR 90W...AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TO FLORIDA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE IN MEXICO AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 19N BETWEEN 90W IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA AND 98W IN SOUTHERN MEXICO...NEAR AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N81W... THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N87W...CURVING TO 28N88W. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE WITHIN 90 NM TO THE EAST OF THE 18N81W 28N88W TROUGH EAST WINDS 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET. ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 KNOTS WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 90W AND 94W...AND SEA HEIGHTS WILL BE LESS THAN 8 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT4 AND MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COASTAL BORDER OF SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST TO 19N97W IN COASTAL MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N81W... THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N87W. A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 20N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND NORTHERN HAITI...TO 19N78W OFF THE COAST OF CUBA. BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND BELIZE/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 66W AND 71W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. THE MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 78W AND 85W INCLUDING IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS 20 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS LESS THAN 8 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE MIAOFFNT3 AND MIAHSFAT2 BULLETINS FOR MORE DETAILS. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...BETWEEN 60W AND COSTA RICA...CURVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...ACROSS NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR...HONDURAS...AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA... NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS MOISTURE EVENTUALLY MERGES WITH OTHER UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 26N66W AND 20N72W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N57W TO 24N61W. A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 24N61W TO 20N70W...ACROSS NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...TO 19N78W OFF THE COAST OF CUBA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W 25N55W 22N60W 20N70W...NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/SURFACE SHEAR AXIS. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N73W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N32W TO 22N35W AND 17N38W. A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 32N15W. THE EARLIER TROUGH WITH THIS LOW CENTER DISSIPATED. A SEPARATE 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 33N23W. THIS LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR 29N22W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 27N46W AND 21N49W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT