000 AXNT20 KNHC 080548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN APR 8 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W ALONG 6N15W TO 4N20W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N26W 3N34W ACROSS THE EQUATOR NEAR 43W INTO BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 10W-17W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 21W-31W AND FROM 1N-7N BETWEEN 42W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NE TO OVER THE SE CONUS. THIS FLOW ALOFT IS DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE NW GULF. A SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH INLAND OVER MEXICO IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER NE MEXICO INTO THE W GULF AND S TEXAS FROM 23N-27N W OF 96W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN WEAKEN SOME MON AND TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE N GULF. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD S ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE TUE AND WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC DRAPES A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MAINLAND OF CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE NE TIP OF YUCATAN PENINSULA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN GIVING THE AREA SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. SOME REMNANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. MODERATE TRADES WILL PERSIST ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN INTO SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA SUN AND ALLOW FRESH NE FLOW THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA SUN NIGHT AND DIMINISHING ON MON. E TRADES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS INTO THE FAR E CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 23N W OF 58W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N59W ALONG 24N64W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 20N74W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE MAINLAND OF CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLC N OF 18N E OF 43W SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1009 MB LOW JUST N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 29N17W WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N18W ALONG 21N30W TO 25N41W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SURFACE LOW ALONG 26N23W TO 25N31W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE FRONT. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SE OVERNIGHT BEFORE STALLING FROM 32N54W TO E CUBA LATE SUN AND MON AS RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD ALONG 29N. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PORTION. THIS FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N75W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA TUE AFTERNOON AND FROM 32N72W TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY LATE WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW