000
AXNT20 KNHC 071726
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT APR 7 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N18W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES 
ALONG 1N30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S42W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS E OF 30W. A LINE OF 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DETACHES FROM THE ITCZ NEAR 30W 
EXTENDING TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OVER THE PAST FEW 
DAYS IS NOW MOVING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC WATERS...LEAVING THE GULF 
WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. BUOY...SHIP...AND 
OIL PLATFORM DATA SHOWS MOSTLY ENE WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. THIS ENVIRONMENT IS ASSOCIATED TO A SURFACE 
RIDGE AXIS THAT IS EXTENDING S OVER THE GULF...ANCHORED BY A 
1028 MB HIGH OVER SRN OHIO. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD 
ACROSS THE NRN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TOMORROW THROUGH 
TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN 
FROM SE TO NW ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE FLOW AROUND THE AXIS 
IS ADVECTING CIRRUS ACROSS THE AREA. AT SURFACE...THE SOUTHERN 
EXTENSION OF A COLD MOVING ACROSS THE WRN ATLC EXTENDS WSW INTO 
THE AREA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO THE NRN YUCATAN 
PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT 
AXIS. OTHERWISE...LOW LEVEL CUMULUS WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK 
SHOWERS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA 
ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A RATHER WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IS 
MAINTAINING A TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS ACROSS THE BASIN. THIS 
FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN INTO SUN. A SURFACE RIDGE 
WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA SUN AND ALLOW FRESH NE FLOW THROUGH THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE AND LEE OF CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT...DIMINISHING BY 
MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD/DEEP TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD 
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N62W EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE 
CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W WHERE IT DISSIPATES 
AS IT ENTERS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. GUSTY NW WINDS UP TI 25 KT 
ARE W OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/180 NM SE OF THE FRONT 
N OF 21N. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS S ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC 
ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 46N29W. 
AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE ERN SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING 1012 MB 
LOW NEAR 29N23W WITH A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING 
AROUND THE ERN AND SRN SEMI CIRCLE OF THE LOW CONTINUING W AS A 
WEAK COLD FRONT ALONG 24N25W 24N33W 25N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT 
WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY BY 
MONDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WRN ATLC. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA