000
AXNT20 KNHC 061045
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI APR 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE SRN COAST OF 
SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N18W 
ALONG 2N33W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ50W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AXIS AND WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 
17W-37W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 47W-53W.    

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO FROM N 
FLORIDA AT 31N84W ALONG 28N89W TO THE TEXAS COAST AT 29N96W. A 
SMALL LINE OF SHOWERS IS AHEAD OF THE AXIS E OF 89W. THE FRONT 
IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS ALONG 
82W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW MOVING OVER THE WRN GULF WITH 
AXIS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TEXAS. DRY AIR ALOFT IS 
HELPING MAINTAIN THE FAIR CONDITIONS BESIDES NEAR THE FRONT. 
EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE EWD ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DIP S 
ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND CONTINUE EWD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH 
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA UP CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO 
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS NICARAGUA 
AND PANAMA WITH POSSIBLE SHOWERS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN. 
ELSEWHERE...ONLY MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT DUE 
TO SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. 
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT 
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE W ATLC WITH 
AXIS STILL ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A FEW LINES OF 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF 
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT FROM THE NW BAHAMAS TO 32N75W...AND FROM THE SE 
BAHAMAS TO 32N72W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF 
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE 
E ALONG 64W WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS 
ALONG 32N52W TO 23N61W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N32W 
TO 25N52W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS. THIS SURFACE TROUGH BISECTS A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A 1023 MB 
HIGH TO THE N AT 32N39W...AND A 1022 MB HIGH TO THE S AT 28N33W. 
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 45W SUPPORTING THIS SURFACE 
RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND 
ERN ATLC...BESIDES NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. BROAD UPPER 
TROUGHING COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM W OF PORTUGAL 
TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS CAUSING NO 
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON