000
AXNT20 KNHC 060554
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI APR 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N18W ALONG 
3N36W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ51W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM N OF THE 
AXIS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO 32W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 
60 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 46W-51W.   

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
DESPITE CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO...AN AREA OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS IMPACTING 
THE SE GULF FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 82W-84W...WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS ACTIVITY 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE ERN 
CONUS ALONG 84W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOW MOVING OVER THE WRN 
GULF WITH AXIS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO TEXAS. DRY AIR 
ALOFT IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE FAIR CONDITIONS BESIDES NEAR THE 
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO SUPPORTING A 
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN GULF COAST. AS OF 1500 UTC...A 
COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N84W TO 
29N88W CONTINUING AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO LOUISIANA AND TEXAS 
ALONG 30N92W 29N97W. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE 
AXIS OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. EXPECT THE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE 
EWD ALLOWING THE FRONT TO DIP S ACROSS THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO 
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SURFACE RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE 
FRONT. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA UP CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO 
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. SOME STRONG SHOWERS/POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OFF THE ERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SHOWERS/POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF PANAMA EXTENDING FROM 
THE E PACIFIC. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
HISPANIOLA. ELSEWHERE...ONLY MODERATE UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS 
PRESENT DUE TO SOME MOISTURE STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA. 
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT 
LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.    

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS MAKING ITS WAY OVER THE W ATLC WITH 
AXIS STILL ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS 
HAVE FORMED UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT N OF 25N 
BETWEEN 73W-76W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF 
HISPANIOLA. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IT TO THE E ALONG 68W 
WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER 
OF THE W ATLC. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 31N55W 
TO 23N65W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 31N36W 
TO 21N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
AXIS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 49W SUPPORTING A 1022 
MB HIGH NEAR 33N41W WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC...BESIDES NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM W 
OF PORTUGAL TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AND TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS 
CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON