000
AXNT20 KNHC 051719
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU APR 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
LIBERIA AT 6N11W TO 3N17W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 2N30W 
TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 50W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 115 NM N OF THE 
ITCZ AXIS AND 160 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS 
THE NE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA OF SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION PRECEDES A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY INLAND OVER 
MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...AND TEXAS...AND IS ENHANCED BY A 
SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING OVER THE FAR SE CONUS. THE 
SHORTWAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER ERN 
MISSOURI. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ANALYZED W OF THE CONVECTION 
AREA FROM 30N90W TO 27N94W...WHERE THE OBSERVED WIND SHIFT AND 
MODEL GUIDANCE COINCIDE THE BEST. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS 
THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS. GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS ARE REPORTED NEAR THE 
AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND FLATTER SEAS 
ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THIS CONVECTIVE FEATURE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE 
ESE THIS AFTERNOON. THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE 
INTO THE BASIN LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS NOTED OVER THE 
NW BASIN WITH UPPER LEVEL CIRRUS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. AT 
SURFACE...LOW LEVEL CUMULUS ARE OBSERVED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY WITH A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTING TRADEWIND 
FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. THIS FLOW TURNS 
AGAINST THE COAST OF COSTA RICA AND WRN PANAMA PUSHING SOME LOW 
LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM BETWEEN 
80W-83W. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE 
ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED 
DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS MOVES ACROSS THE 
NW BAHAMAS ASSOCIATED TO A POST SQUALL LINE THAT MOVED FROM THE 
FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO THE W 
ATLC THIS MORNING. THIS AREA IS NOTED FROM 22N-31N BETWEEN 
76W-80W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD 
WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N-NW A ATLC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH 
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS STATIONARY NEAR 31N40W ALONG 
22N50W DISSIPATING TO 18N64W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL AXIS. THIS TYPE OF CONVECTION IS 
EXPECTED TO LINGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN ATLC SUPPORTS A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 
30N30W PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF 
THE ERN ATLC.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA