000 AXNT20 KNHC 050540 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT THU APR 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 7N11W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W ALONG 3N30W 2N46W TO INLAND BRAZIL AT THE EQUATOR AND 55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 8W-12W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 22W-26W...AND FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 27W-33W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SEVERAL AREAS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMPACTING THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS CENTERED NEAR NRN OKLAHOMA WHICH HAS PRODUCED SEVERAL SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGHS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOUISIANA TO THE SE GULF ALONG 30N91W TO 23N84W. IT IS SUPPORTING A DIMINISHING...BUT STILL ACTIVE...SQUALL LINE FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA AT 28N83W ALONG 24N85W 23N89W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AXIS WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING ABOUT 100 NW OF THE AXIS. A SECOND AREA OF STRONG STORMS IS NEAR S CENTRAL LOUISIANA FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 9W-93W. FINALLY...A STRONG BURST OF CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND HAS NOW REACHED THE NW CARIBBEAN. BESIDES THE AREAS OF CONVECTION...LITTLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE GULF...AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED IN THE SW GULF WITH ONLY SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 93W-96W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE STRONG NEAR THE AREAS OF CONVECTION WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THESE BURSTS OF CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES EWD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GULF...AND NEW BURSTS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY SW-W FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN TO THE BAHAMAS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS BEEN PUSHING S AND HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHICH HAS NOW SHIFTED INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 85W-89W. SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. SOME MODERATE MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT POSSIBLE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE BASIN WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... MAINLY ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE FAR WRN ATLC BETWEEN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND THE BAHAMAS. A MORE DEFINED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS AND FLORIDA. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE W ATLC EXTENDING FROM A SURFACE HIGH CENTER FARTHER E. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEWFOUNDLAND TO 34N40W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH EXTENDS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG 32N41W 25N49W 20N60W DISSIPATING TO 20N66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E-SE OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 33W SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE HIGH...A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 32N31W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATL ALONG 47N7W CROSSING THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON