000
AXNT20 KNHC 042355
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED APR 4 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES FROM COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 6N10W
TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL 
NEAR EQ50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT NEAR THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER OVER OKLAHOMA HAS A COLD 
FRONT TRAILING SOUTHWARD TO THE TX/MEXICO BORDER. E TO SE WINDS 
PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FROM A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING 
WESTWARD FROM THE ATLC INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE RIDGE WILL 
SHIFT E OF THE AREA THU AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW GULF 
AND SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS THROUGH FRI. THE 
FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD AND REACH THE SE GULF SAT WHILE 
HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE N. A SQUALL LINE IN 
THE NE GULF IS SPREADING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS 
OVER N OF 25N E OF 90W. SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3-4 FT...WITH LITTLE 
CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WEAK HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE 
CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH SAT AND MAINTAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SE 
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI...THEN SHIFT
E TO NE SAT AND SUN AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IN THE SE GULF OF 
MEXICO PUSHES S OF CUBA THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ONLY A FEW 
WIDELY DISPERSED SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION. SEAS ARE 
GENERALLY 4-5 FT ACROSS THE REGION AND LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH FRI.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 31N44W 
TO 22N56W THEN BECOMES DIFFUSE ALONG 21N/22N W OF 56W TO THE S 
BAHAMAS. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE DYING 
DOWN N OF 23N WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT AND NEARLY NON-EXISTENT
E OF 55W. HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 27N IS ANCHORED BY A WEAK 1018 MB
HIGH NEAR 27N70W. FRESH W-NW WINDS AND LARGE NW SWELL BEHIND THE 
FRONT AFFECTING THE CENTRAL ATLC E OF THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY 
SUBSIDE THROUGH FRI. WINDS WILL START TO INCREASE N OF 28N THU 
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRUSH PAST 29N-30N 
THROUGH THU NIGHT. A LOW PRES SYSTEM WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT 
WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST OF S CAROLINA FRI...AND REACH FROM 31N75W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRI NIGHT... AND FROM BERMUDA TO STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA BY LATE SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MUNDELL