000 AXNT20 KNHC 040546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED APR 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE SRN COAST OF IVORY COAST AT 5N4W TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W ALONG 2N32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT EQ49W TO 3S54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 8W-12W...FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 13W-19W...FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 25W-28W...AND FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 32W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AIR ALOFT IN SWLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ERN CONUS...AND A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SW CONUS. THE DRY AIR ALOFT IS HELPING PROVIDE FAIR SURFACE CONDITIONS AROUND WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN GULF FROM THE W ATLC. SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT OVER THE NW GULF WITH NO SHOWERS AT THIS TIME. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO OVER NRN FLORIDA. THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS IS PRODUCING STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...ACROSS PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. NONE ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE GULF WATERS. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE BASIN FOR 24 HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NRN GULF THURSDAY MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY SWLY FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WRN TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN TO THE ERN CONUS. SOME MODERATE MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS WITH CLEAR SKIES OVER THE FAR ERN CARIBBEAN. A BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP OVER HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 85W-90W IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SW CONUS...DOWN MEXICO...AND DOWN CENTRAL AMERICA TO COLOMBIA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND COLOMBIA. A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE CONVECTIVE BURST OVER NRN CENTRAL AMERICA TO DIE OUT OVER THE MORNING HOURS WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 29N73W. MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING MUCH OF THIS AREA FREE OF CLOUDS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS TO THE E ALONG 56W EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N47W TO 21N60W TRANSITIONING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH TO 19N70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 22N. A SECOND AND STRONGER COLD FRONT IS TO THE W ALONG 32N50W 26N55W 24N63W DISSIPATING TO 24N72W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE AXIS N OF 23N. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E ALONG 37W SUPPORTS A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 33N32W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC FROM E OF PORTUGAL TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 28N16W TO 20N31W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON