000 AXNT20 KNHC 031802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE APR 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF AT 6N10W TO 2N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N18W 00N47W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION FROM 1N-5N FROM THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-4N BETWEEN 9W-12W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ERN U.S. AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW U.S. AND NORTHERN MEXICO. MOSTLY DRY AIR IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT FOR HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NE TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A BURST OF CONVECTION ALONG THE NRN GULF NEAR THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS WEAKENING. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 28N84W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIMS THE NRN GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY SW-W FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM VENEZUELA TO CUBA AND CONTINUING UP THE ERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. AT THE SURFACE A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. SOME LIGHTER WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHICH IS CREATING SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS N OF 25N ALONG 59W SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THAT ARE IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE S INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N55W 26N70W 31N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT E OF 63W. THE SECOND DISSIPATING FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N44W TO 21N65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN MOST FRONT ARE N OF 29N BETWEEN 62W AND 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE TROUGH ALONG 40W SUPPORTING A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N34W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC FROM CENTRAL SPAIN TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N15W TO 20N32W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ DGS