000 AXNT20 KNHC 031041 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE APR 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 2N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 36W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S46W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN TO 3W FROM 1N-5N. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 8W-13W...AND FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 25W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ERN CONUS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS. WHILE MOSTLY DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE BASIN...A BURST OF CONVECTION STILL REMAINS ALONG THE NRN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND AREAS TO THE S FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 86W-88W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1014 MB HIGH NEAR 27N84W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF. MAINLY SELY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN BESIDES IN THE AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIMS THE NRN GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY SW-W FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM VENEZUELA TO CUBA AND CONTINUING UP THE ERN CONUS. MODERATE DRY AIR WITH SOME STREAMS OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUD COVER OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. SOME LIGHTER WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHICH IS CREATING SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 62W SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THAT ARE IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK S INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N59W 28N69W 32N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE AXIS. THE SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N46W ALONG 26N54W 22N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE AXIS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N AHEAD OF THE WWD MOST FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E ALONG 40W SUPPORTING A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N34W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC FROM CENTRAL SPAIN TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N15W TO 14N35W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON