000 AXNT20 KNHC 030545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE APR 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0445 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 3N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N16W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 32W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3S48W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-5N BETWEEN 15W-21W...AND FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 25W-29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MAINLY SWLY FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND ERN CONUS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SW CONUS. WHILE MOSTLY DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE BASIN...SEVERAL BURSTS OF CONVECTION HAVE FORMED ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE ERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA COASTLINE BETWEEN 87W-93W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO TO THE S FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 88W-91W. A SECOND BURST OF CONVECTION IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 86W-89W. THIS AREA MAY ALSO BE INFLUENCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE YUCATAN FROM 23N88W TO 18N90W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1013 MB HIGH NEAR 26N82W IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF. MAINLY SELY FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN BESIDES IN THE AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EXPECT WEAK SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SKIMS THE NRN GULF LATER IN THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY SW-W FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM VENEZUELA TO CUBA AND CONTINUING UP THE ERN CONUS. MODERATE DRY AIR WITH SOME STREAMS OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE AREA SUPPORTING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER WITH CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. AN AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL APPROACHING WRN CUBA. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. SOME LIGHTER WINDS ARE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHICH IS CREATING SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 64W SUPPORTING A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS THAT ARE IMPACTING THE AREA. THE FIRST FRONT IS QUICKLY SINKING S INTO THE AREA ALONG 32N61W 29N71W 32N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE SECOND FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W ALONG 27N55W 24N67W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E AND S OF THE AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 43W-50W...AND WITHIN 100 NM E AND S OF THE AXIS ELSEWHERE. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 30N AHEAD OF THE WWD MOST FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E ALONG 40W SUPPORTING A 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N35W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN ATLC. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC FROM CENTRAL SPAIN TO THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 27N15W TO 14N38W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON