000
AXNT20 KNHC 021747
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON APR 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 4N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N18W 
ALONG 4N35W TO 2N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERS MUCH OF THE 
CENTRAL U.S. N OF 32N CENTERED OVER SRN ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W TEXAS INTO THE NRN GULF OF 
MEXICO PROVIDING SWLY FLOR ALOFT WHICH IS DRAWING MOISTURE 
ACROSS THE BASIN. MOST OF THE CONVECTION BURSTS HAVE FLARED UP 
ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF, WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS 
THE ERN GULF AROUND A 1013 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N84W 
MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ALONG THE NE GULF COAST AND 
FLORIDA. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MAINLY SW-W FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE ALONG WITH MODERATE DRY AIR ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS. SOME 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE SRN HALF SUPPORTING 
BROKEN HIGH CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH 
OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA. THESE STRONGER WINDS AROUND COLOMBIA ARE PRODUCING 
SOME CONVERGENCE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. 
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING S OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS N OF 25N ALONG 64W. THE UPPER TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N58W TO 
27N66W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 29N59W TO 
26N62W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E OF THE TROUGH 
UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF GREATEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 53W-60W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 1024 MB 
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N40W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR 
ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN PORTUGAL 
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 27N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS