000 AXNT20 KNHC 020541 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT MON APR 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE SRN COAST OF GUINEA AT 9N3W TO 2N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N20W ALONG 2N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 39W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3S46W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 17W-20W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 30W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CONUS N OF 32N CENTERED OVER MISSOURI. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SW TEXAS INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO DRAWING MOISTURE ACROSS THE BASIN. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH AND IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL GULF WHERE A LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 85W-89W...WITH A SMALLER CLUSTER FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 90W-93W. SOME PATCHES OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTLINE FROM 19N-27N W OF 95W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 24N89W TO 18N90W. THIS FEATURE IS MORE A RESULT OF DIURNAL EFFECTS THAN A REFLECTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS THEREFORE A RESULT OF THE UPPER TROUGH NOT THE SURFACE TROUGH EVEN THOUGH THEY ARE IN NEAR VICINITY OF EACH OTHER. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE ERN GULF AROUND A 1014 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 27N85W MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ALONG THE N GULF COAST AND FLORIDA. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE TO REMAIN STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MAINLY SW-W FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG WITH MODERATE DRY AIR ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER THE SRN HALF SUPPORTING SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER. AT THE SURFACE...A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SUPPORTING TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ALSO PRESENT OVER ERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND ACROSS THE SW CORNER OF OF THE AREA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SINKING S OVER THE W ATLC INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 67W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT WHICH IS ALSO SKIMMING THE AREA ALONG 32N67W TO 32N78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 32N65W TO 24N73W. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS E OF THE TROUGH UNDERNEATH THE AREA OF GREATEST DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF 24N BETWEEN 58W-65W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER E ALONG 26N53W TO 19N56W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS AND WITHIN 175 NM TO THE N. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N37W...WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SRN PORTUGAL ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 20N43W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 32N19W TO 26N20W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NEAR THE AXIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON