000 AXNT20 KNHC 011730 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN APR 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W SW TO 6N16W TO 3N120W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 1N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 40W AND CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180-240 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 17W...AND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ BETWEEN 17W AND 29W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ALONG THE COASTLINE FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR 28N96W WHERE A MID TO UPPER LOW IS PRESENT. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WATERS S OF 28N WITH DRY AIR TO THE N BEHIND THE TROUGH. OTHERWISE...WEAK 1015 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS NEAR 27N86W WITH A WEAK RIDGE REACHING TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR CORPUS CRISTI...MAINTAINING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH REACHES FROM 23N93W TO 19N95W. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE A DEVELOPING AREA OF CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE E GULF THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE NE-E...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE W GULF. CORRESPONDING SEAS WILL BE 1-3 FT IN THE E GULF AND 4-7 FT IN THE W GULF. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... SW-W FLOW DOMINATES THE BASIN ALOFT WITH DEBRIS MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED FROM THE NE PACIFIC BASIN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH MAINLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PRESENT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STABLE CONDITIONS EXIST AT THE SURFACE RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN. TRADE WIND FLOW OF 10-20 KT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN... EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS TO 25 KT WILL REMAIN PREVALENT UNTIL THIS EVENING. THE 10-20 KT TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF OF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST REACHING FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS TO THE E COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL. THIS UPPER FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N73W TO 28N76W TO 23N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE N OF 28N WITHIN 360 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EXIST ACROSS THE SAME AREA OF CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP S INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MON PUSHING THE TROUGH TO THE E AHEAD OF IT. STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC MON NIGHT AND TUE AS A DEVELOPING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRES MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA FROM THE N WHILE INTENSIFYING. A GALE WARNING IS FORECAST FROM 06 UTC TUE THROUGH 18 UTC TUE N OF 29N BETWEEN 55W AND 67W. LARGE NW SWELL UP TO 24 FT ALONG 31N/32N WILL PROPAGATE SE BEHIND THE FRONT TUE. THE FRONT WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NE ATLC WITH HIGH PRES SINKING SE FROM THE CAROLINAS TO E OF FLORIDA LATE TUE AND WED. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N40W TO 29N54W WITH ONLY 10-15 KT WINDS NEAR IT. THIS FEATURE WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 24N50W TO 20N55W TO 13N58W. ONLY 10-15 KT WINDS EXIST NEAR THIS TROUGH AS WELL...AS NOTED BY AN ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS. THIS TROUGH WILL DRIFT TO THE NW THROUGH TONIGHT BECOMING ABSORBED BY THE COLD FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE ON MON. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LEWITSKY