000 AXNT20 KNHC 010001 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W ALONG 8N17W TO 2N20W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-35W TO 1N39W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR INTO BRAZIL NEAR 2S46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 5N11W TO 1N26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N TO JUST S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 26W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES SW ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO OVER TEXAS AND N MEXICO AMPLIFYING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE W ATLC. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER GEORGIA TO OVER THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR SAVANNAH GEORGIA ACROSS TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 29N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH MAINLY OVER FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS THE FLORIA PENINSULA TO THE W COAST OF THE GULF. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N-28N E OF 88W TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE S GULF FROM 22N90W TO OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA TO NW GUATEMALA NEAR 17N91W BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA TO OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO CENTRAL CUBA CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLC GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING AND COUPLED WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC IS PRODUCING MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE TRADE WINDS ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 73W-79W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH INLAND OVER GEORGIA IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE MOVING INTO THE FAR W ATLC N OF 25N W OF 77W. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN DOMINATES THE W ATLC. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING THE REMNANTS OF COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N48W ALONG 28N60W TO 29N65W WITHIN ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM SE OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS S OF THIS DISSIPATING FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 25N52W AND EXTENDS W TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. A SECOND WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS TO THE E SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N32W AND EXTENDS ALONG 28N28W TO 23N43W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL DRIFT E AS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES INTO THE W ATLC LATER TONIGHT CONTINUING E THROUGH SUN NIGHT THEN N OF THE AREA ON MON. A STRONGER COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE W ATLC LATE MON AND INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED THROUGH THU. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD OVER THE W ATLC WED THROUGH THU. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW