000
AXNT20 KNHC 310532
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT MAR 31 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FORM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA OVER 
THE NRN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 3N18W. THE ITCZ 
THEN CONTINUES FROM 3N18W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 30W TO THE 
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-170 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE 
MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MOSTLY SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF IS NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY. WITHIN THIS FLOW...A WEAK TROUGH/LOW MOVES ACROSS THE N 
CENTRAL GULF SUPPORTING AN AREA OF WEAK SHOWERS WITH A FEW 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA 
COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 60 NM BETWEEN 87W-90W. SIMILAR CONVECTION 
IS WIDELY SCATTERED OVER THE ERN GULF E IF 86W. DEBRIS BLOW-OFF 
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY OVER ERN MEXICO 
IS SPREADING EWD INTO THE WRN GULF. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA DUE TO A SURFACE RIDGE 
AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF FROM A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM 
OVER THE WRN ATLC. THE WIND FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE AXIS IS MAINLY 
SSE 10-15 KT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WRN GULF 
LATE SUN INTO MON IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THIS 
EVENING...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION AND KEEPING FAIR WEATHER 
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL WEAK 
SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR OVER THE NE WATERS E OF 67W N 
OF MARTINIQUE. SOME OF THE MOST ACTIVE AREAS ARE SEEN S OF 
PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. TRADE WIND FLOW OF 
15-20 KT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH THE 
STRONGEST FLOW TURNING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND CAUSING 
SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...GENERATING 
SOME POSSIBLE SHOWERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 76W-81W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OFF THE ERN CONUS IS SUPPORTING 
WEAK 1021 MB HIGH OVER THE WRN ATLC NEAR 27N70W...KEEPING QUIET 
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THIS PORTION OF THE ATLC WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BRIEFLY DIPS DOWN IN 
OUR NRN LIMIT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N54W TO 29N62W TO 
32N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE BOUNDARY E OF 
62W. TO THE E OF THIS BOUNDARY...A NEARLY STATIONARY 1024 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED AROUND 27N43W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N25W TO 28N32W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO 
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 17N52W. ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 55 NM ON EITHER SIDE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A 
DISSIPATING 1023 MB HIGH IS E OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 25N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA