000 AXNT20 KNHC 281734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED MAR 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 3N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N17W ALONG 3N26W TO THE EQUATOR AND 41W TO EQ51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 160 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 12W-24W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 33W-39W...AND BETWEEN 43W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY EXTENDING FROM A 1025 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC. MOSTLY SE WINDS OF 10-15 KTS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS EXTEND FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA. THESE PATCHES OF MOISTURE LIKELY ADVECTED WWD TO NWWD AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE ATLC. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 92W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE RIDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR COVERS THE ERN HALF OF THE BASIN...WHICH IS HELPING SUPPORT FAIR CONDITIONS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IN SWLY FLOW. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING SOME SHOWERS INCLUDING COASTAL PANAMA AND COSTA RICA DUE TO WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE AT THE COAST. THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS INCLUDING PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING SHOWERS DUE TO A WEAKENING COLD FRONT TO THE N OF THE AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE WHAT IS CAUSING SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE PANAMA AND COSTA RICA COASTLINES. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENTS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN WHERE SOME OF THE SURFACE STATIONS ARE REPORTING DUST. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE FAR W ATLC SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 31N75W. THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH DRY AIR ALOFT IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 52W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N50W ALONG 27N52W 21N64W WHERE IT BECOMES DISSIPATING AROUND THE SRN EXTEND OF THE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 21N73W 23N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS AND ARE IMPACTING SOME OF THE NRN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. AN ACTIVE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS E OF THE FRONT ALONG 29N48W 25N50W 20N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC ALONG 35W SUPPORTING A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N29W...WHICH IS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FARTHER E ALONG 15W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW OVER NW AFRICA NEAR 32N7W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 27N17W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N21W TO 26N25W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON