000
AXNT20 KNHC 270505
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE MAR 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W TO 
1N30W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 1S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 
2S44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4S BETWEEN 
25W-35W...AND FROM 2N-1S BETWEEN 41W-50W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED S OF MISSISSIPPI AT 
29N89W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE 
WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND HOWEVER OVER S TEXAS AND NE MEXICO 
FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 98W-101W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 93W. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF WHILE CONSIDERABLE 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS AND N 
MEXICO. EXPECT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO PREVAIL OVER THE 
GULF FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER S 
TEXAS AND NE MEXICO...AS WELL AS OVER S FLORIDA...WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER CUBA FROM 
21N76W TO 22N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF W CUBA. A SURFACE 
TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N89W TO GUATEMALA AT 
16N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE WITH 45 NM OF THE TROUGH. 
RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA... 
NICARAGUA...AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. 10-15 KT 
TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW 
PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT 
TO MOVE E TO N OF HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
SHOWERS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N65W TO E CUBA AT 
21N76W. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE 
FRONT. A 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N43W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS 
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N28W TO 25N40W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST 
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 25W AS NOTED FROM THE 
GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-80W SUPPORTING THE W ATLANTIC 
FRONT. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 
20N E OF 40W SUPPORTING THE OTHER FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR BOTH FRONTS TO STEADILY MOVE E. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA