000 AXNT20 KNHC 261737 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE NRN COAST OF LIBERIA AT 7N11W CONTINUING TO 1N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N24W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 27W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S49W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 5W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 11W-19W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 21W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N81W TO 23N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N91W TO 18N93W CAUSING NO SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE BASIN DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MEXICAN COASTLINE AND TEXAS...AND THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS PUSHED INTO THE W ATLC. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY BESIDES A FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ALONG A SWATH FROM ERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO 17N81W. ALOFT...MAINLY SWLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN WITH MODERATE DRY AIR...WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE FAIR CONDITIONS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE HITTING THE COAST OF PANAMA FLARING UP A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTLINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENTS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST HAS REACHED THE ERN CARIBBEAN WHERE SOME OF THE SURFACE STATIONS ARE REPORTING DUST. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER CUBA TO DISSIPATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ALONG 72W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W CONTINUING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 27N73W 23N80W 23N84W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. BESIDES THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT...DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 54W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 30N29W TO 52N39W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N33W TO 26N48W. ISOLATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH GOES-R DUST IMAGERY ENHANCEMENT INDICATE AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS S OF 20N FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON 000 AXNT20 KNHC 261737 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON MAR 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1645 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE NRN COAST OF LIBERIA AT 7N11W CONTINUING TO 1N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 1N24W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 27W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S49W. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF W AFRICA FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 5W-9W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-6N BETWEEN 11W-19W...AND FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN 21W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 1500 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CUBA INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N81W TO 23N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE AXIS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALSO IN THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 21N91W TO 18N93W CAUSING NO SHOWER ACTIVITY DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS INFLUENCED BY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 28N94W. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ACROSS THE BASIN DUE TO STRONG DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND THE E SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MEXICAN COASTLINE AND TEXAS...AND THE W SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS PUSHED INTO THE W ATLC. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER THE CARIBBEAN TODAY BESIDES A FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DUE TO A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CUBA TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO...AND ALONG A SWATH FROM ERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO 17N81W. ALOFT...MAINLY SWLY FLOW COVERS THE BASIN WITH MODERATE DRY AIR...WHICH IS HELPING MAINTAIN THE FAIR CONDITIONS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE HITTING THE COAST OF PANAMA FLARING UP A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COASTLINE. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENTS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST HAS REACHED THE ERN CARIBBEAN WHERE SOME OF THE SURFACE STATIONS ARE REPORTING DUST. EXPECT THE FRONT OVER CUBA TO DISSIPATE WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ALONG 72W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N70W CONTINUING TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG 27N73W 23N80W 23N84W. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 160 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. BESIDES THE MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT...DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA UNDER FAIR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 54W SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE ERN ATLC WITH AXIS FROM 30N29W TO 52N39W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N33W TO 26N48W. ISOLATE SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH GOES-R DUST IMAGERY ENHANCEMENT INDICATE AN AREA OF AFRICAN DUST EXTENDS S OF 20N FROM THE AFRICAN COAST TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON