000 AXNT20 KNHC 252340 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE NRN COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 9N13W...TURNING SW TO NEAR 2N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG THE EQUATOR NEAR 27W...THEN SLIGHTLY NW TO NEAR 1N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 1N-6N E OF 17W INCLUDING THE COASTAL PLAINS OF BENIN...TOGO ...GHANA...AND THE IVORY COAST. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE FROM 5S-3N BETWEEN 24W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS EXTENDING FROM S OF MARCO ISLAND NEAR 25N81W TO 24N87W BECOMING WEAK TO 24N95W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE STRAITS WITHIN 50 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 23N E OF 85W. A LINE OF WEAK SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. THE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE W ATLC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING NW OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 29N93W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SE OF THE GULF TONIGHT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NW GULF TONIGHT AND SPREAD E ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS EVENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A FEW CLUSTERS OF LOW-TOP SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF GUADALOUPE AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PASS E THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN WATERS TONIGHT AND MONDAY..THEN DISSIPATING ACROSS HISPANIOLA ON TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS INTO THE W ATLC NEAR 33N79W...SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N73W TO ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA NEAR BOCA RATON CONTINUING INTO THE FAR SE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 27N58W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA W OF 50W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N39W TO 28N47W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO 28N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TO THE S OF THIS FRONT...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 23N48W TO 17N53W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. THE W ATLC FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE W ATLC BY WEDNESDAY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA