000
AXNT20 KNHC 250508
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN MAR 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
SIERRA LEONE AT 7N12W TO 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 
2N20W TO 1N30W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 1S40W TO THE COAST OF 
BRAZIL AT 2S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5S 
BETWEEN 20W-32W...FROM 3N-EQ BETWEEN 35W-40W...AND FROM 2N-1S 
BETWEEN 46W-50W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N83W 
TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N90W MOVING SE. RADAR 
IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM 
SE OF THE FRONT REACHING TAMPA FLORIDA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. WINDS NW OF THE FRONT ARE FROM 
THE NW AT 10-15 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 25N SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL 
SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO THE 
NE GULF AND FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE IN THE W 
ATLANTIC WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA.    

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N88W TO  
GUATEMALA AT 15N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE WITH 45 NM 
OF THE TROUGH. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS 
OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 
63W-68W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA... E 
CUBA...AND THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND W PANAMA. ELSEWHERE... 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND 
VENEZUELA. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF 
VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N AND E OF 70W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND 
HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER S MEXICO... GUATEMALA... AND HONDURAS 
...AS WELL AS OVER SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.   

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  
OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 78W. 
A 1022 MB HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N66W 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC FROM 32N45W TO 31N60W MOVING SE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
OVER THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 24N45W TO 19N49W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1018 
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N33W. A PLUME OF AFRICAN 
DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 25W AS NOTED FROM THE 
GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LONG WAVE TROUGH 
IS N OF 27N BETWEEN 30W-60W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
FRONT. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO 
EXTEND FROM 32N72W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. ALSO EXPECT THE 
CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM 32N35W TO 26N52W WITH 
RAIN AND SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA