000
AXNT20 KNHC 242315
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGIONS OF 
AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 3N13W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 1N35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL 
NEAR EQ50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 5S-2N W OF 21W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE AT 30N84W TO 27N90W BECOMING STATIONARY TO 25N94W. 
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS 
WITHIN 80 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 26N. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SYSTEM IS 
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE ERN CONUS 
CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN TENNESSEE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS 
DRY AIR ALOFT COVERING THE THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THIS 
EVENING...GIVING THE AREA FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. EXPECT THE 
FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 
WEEKEND AS SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE WRN GULF EARLY NEXT 
WEEK.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS 
THIS EVENING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A FEW CLUSTERS OF 
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY 
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND NE BASINS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MONA 
PASSAGE...PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS. TRADEWIND 
FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME 
STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WEATHER CONDITIONS 
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH 
NEAR 28N67W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN 
APPROACHING FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE NE GULF IS GENERATING A 
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INLAND ACROSS FLORIDA 
PENINSULA EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE WRN ATLC WATERS DURING THE 
NEXT FEW HOURS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE NORTH 
CENTRAL ATLC WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF IT SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 24N45W TO 
18N55W. DESPITE THE SURFACE FEATURE...THE CONVECTION IS MORE 
ASSOCIATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...WHICH HAS DISPLACED 
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL TO THE EAST FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 
37W-46W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN ATLC SUPPORTING A 
WEAK SURFACE 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 23N35W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA