000 AXNT20 KNHC 240516 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT MAR 24 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA ...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AT 8N13W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W TO 1N30W TO S OF THE EQUATOR AT 1S40W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3S44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 28W-34W...AND FROM EQ-4S BETWEEN 27W-35W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE SE COAST OF LOUISIANA AT 29N90W TO N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 27N97W. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FRONT. A PREFRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS OVER THE NE GULF FROM 30N85W TO 28N89W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 85W-89W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF OF MEXICO N OF 27N SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE CONFINED TO THE NE GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 26N90W WITH CONVECTION OVER FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N89W TO 16N91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND MOSTLY OVER GUATEMALA FROM FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 89W-93W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 64W-68W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA... JAMAICA...AND E CUBA. ELSEWHERE...RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N AND E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED OVER S MEXICO... GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS...AS WELL AS OVER VENEZUELA...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT VERY LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N69W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 27N45W TO 19N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1019 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N39W. THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N17W TO 26N29W. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE FRONT. A PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 30W AS NOTED FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N54W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N 80W TO JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DIP S INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO NEAR 29N52W WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC FRONT TO BE OUT OF THE AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA