000 AXNT20 KNHC 231044 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1030 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W TO 06N16W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N16W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 06N BETWEEN 08W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 23/0900 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA TO 27N93W TO 24N95W SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN KANSAS. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF 29N AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 87W-90W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILL AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY IN SUPPORT OF SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM A PERSISTENT HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS FAVORABLE WITH FAIR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DUE TO THE RIDGE...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SKIRT THE NE GULF COAST E OF 90W LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING W OF 70W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT WITHIN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. E OF 70W...THE SAME UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED AND DRIFTED WESTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N E OF 71W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM GUADELOUPE TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 10-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX IN STRENGTH AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE PERSISTENT HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WEAKENING AND SLIDING SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 32N68W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND AREAS EASTWARD FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 45W-68W. THE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 80W OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 35N55W. FARTHER EAST...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N14W THROUGH 27N33W THEN TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR AXIS THROUGH 28N50W TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N63W. A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 28N BETWEEN 20W-40W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N24W TO 28N40W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN