000 AXNT20 KNHC 230548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI MAR 23 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0530 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W TO 04N15W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N15W TO 01N34W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 06N BETWEEN 07W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 23/0300 UTC A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA AREA TO 27N93W TO 23N94W SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS CENTERED IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN KANSAS. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND N OF 29N BETWEEN 85W-90W. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FORECAST TO GRADUALLY FILL AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY IN SUPPORT OF SURFACE RIDGING EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD FROM A PERSISTENT HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS FAVORABLE WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED DUE TO THE RIDGE...HOWEVER A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SKIRT THE NE GULF COAST E OF 90W LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING FAIR WEATHER THIS EVENING W OF 70W UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR ALOFT IN WEST- SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. E OF 70W...THE SAME UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...AN AREA OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N E OF 70W...INCLUDING PUERTO RICO...THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. AN AREA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS ALSO NOTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF A LINE FROM GUADELOUPE TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 12N72W..INCLUDING THE WINDWARD AND ABC ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY RELAX IN STRENGTH AS A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC AND THE PERSISTENT HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC WEAKENS AND SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 40W ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED WEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N68W PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN AREA OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LIKELY ORIGINATING FROM A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND AREAS EASTWARD FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 40W-70W. THE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 81W OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TO AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 35N57W. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N17W THROUGH 26N40W THEN TRANSITIONS TO A SHEAR AXIS THROUGH 27N53W TO AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 28N63W. A REINFORCING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 28N BETWEEN 20W-40W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N28W TO 29N39W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN