000
AXNT20 KNHC 192316
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 
6N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
6N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 36W THEN TO SOUTH AMERICA AT 3S43W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS MOVING E. A SURFACE RIDGE IS 
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 30N. 5-20 KT SE WINDS ARE NOTED 
OVER THE GULF WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE NW GULF AND THE   
LIGHTEST WINDS OVER THE NE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE 
GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER TEXAS 
SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE 
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 84W. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUD HAS ADVECTED OVER THE GULF FROM THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC. EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE NW GULF IN 
24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SE RETURN FLOW 
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER INLAND COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA. 10-25 KT 
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE W 
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS 10-15 KT NE TO E SURFACE FLOW. 
RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER PUERTO RICO. SIMILAR 
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 
13N E OF 70W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER 
INLAND W PANAMA FROM 8N-9N BETWEEN 82W-83W MOVING E. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...SW TO W FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND 
CENTRAL AMERICA. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE 
AND HIGH CLOUD HAS ADVECTED OVER S MEXICO...GUATEMALA...AND 
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC. SIMILAR HIGH CLOUD 
HAD ADVECTED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND 
SOUTH AMERICA. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR MORE TROPICAL 
MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT 
LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 35N66W. A 
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW TO N FLORIDA AT 30N81W. A SURFACE TROUGH 
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N42W TO 24N55W. ISOLATED 
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A LARGE PLUME OF 
AFRICAN DUST IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N E OF 30W AS NOTED 
FROM THE GOES-R PG DUST IMAGERY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N W OF 55W. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ENHANCING THE SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 7N-15N W OF 55W. ALSO EXPECT 
CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.   

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA