000
AXNT20 KNHC 191725
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON MAR 19 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N17W TO 
06N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
06N27W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W THEN TO 03S44W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION NOTED.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A LARGE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF MEXICO N OF 20N 
AND CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A 
SUBTROPICAL JET CUTS ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 18N103W TO 
21N97W WHERE IT SPLITS WITH ONE BRANCH EXTENDING NORTHWARD 
ACROSS THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AND THE OTHER EXTENDING 
EASTWARD AND THEN DIPPING SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BEFORE 
DISSIPATING. A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED OVER THE 
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 90W. THIS RIDGE AND THE TROUGH 
MENTIONED ABOVE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT TWO 
DAYS. AT THE SURFACE WINDS ARE GENERALLY SE 15 TO 20 KT. A FEW 
SHOWERS ARE LOCATED BETWEEN EYW AND THE N COAST OF CUBA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W CENTRAL ATLANTIC 
CONTINUES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH 
THE AXIS LOCATED THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE VICINITY OF 
14N81W. A PROMINENT JET ALOFT IS LOCATED FROM EASTERN PANAMA TO 
15N70W AND ACROSS E PUERTO RICO. STRONG SW WINDS ARE LOCATED SE 
OF THE JET OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. GENERALLY TRANQUIL 
CONDITIONS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY 
A FEW WESTWARD MOVING SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W CENTRAL ATLANTIC HAS ITS 
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N55W TO 25N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. 
A SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE N PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W...MOVING SLOWLY S. AN ASSOCIATED 
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N41W TO 25N54W WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS LOCATED UP TO TWO DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF THIS FEATURE. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED N OF 
30N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW LOCATED OFF 
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW 
TO NEAR 31N78.5W. THE JET ALOFT MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE CARIBBEAN 
SECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC FROM E PUERTO RICO TO 
25N45W TO 23N30W TO THE AFRICAN COAST AT 16N. WINDS ALONG THE 
JET ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AS HIGH AS 90 KNOTS WITH THE SOUTHERN 
LIMIT OF 50 KNOT WINDS TO NEAR 12N. A BROAD MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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CAB