000 AXNT20 KNHC 181146 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN MAR 18 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N10W TO 3N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N22W ALONG 1N40W CROSSING THE EQUATOR AT 46W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 1S51W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-5N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 13W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-2N BETWEEN 35W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING WITH AXIS ALONG 95W. MOISTURE IS STREAMING ACROSS THE WRN GULF AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE PROVIDING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE UPPER RIDGE ALSO SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE NE CORNER TO SW CORNER OF THE GULF. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE 10-15 KT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT ACROSS THE BASIN. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN. SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS CLEAR SKIES BESIDES A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF JAMAICA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH SOME STRONGER WINDS AROUND THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS HELPING PROVIDE FAIR CONDITIONS W OF 69W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST E OF 68W FROM 27N66W TO 23N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS FARTHER E ALONG 31N52W TO 27N55W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY E OF THE AXIS FROM N OF 25N BETWEEN 51W-55W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS ALSO BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 55W-64W. MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS INFLUENCED BY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND THE UPPER TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND PART OF THE ERN ATLC SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB AZORES HIGH NEAR 41N22W WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. GOES-R SATELLITE ENHANCED IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE AN AREA OF DUST OFF NW AFRICA EXTENDING TO 35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 21W CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON