000 AXNT20 KNHC 161805 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAR 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SIERRA LEONE NEAR 6N11W TO 3N17W AND 2N22W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N22W TO 3N32W... PASSING THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...TO 5S41W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 4N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 52W AND 55W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. PART OF THE OVERALL LARGE-SCALE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MERGES/ COMBINES WITH SEPARATE AND INDEPENDENT CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. THE AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BECOME CUT OFF FROM ITS PARENT TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS BEEN ON TOP OF FLORIDA AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA FOR THE LAST 48 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM 21N IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 25N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 88W...AND FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. RETURN SURFACE SOUTHEASTERLY-TO-SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD FIELD. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1027 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N69W...THROUGH 31N88W TO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS NEAR THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST 48 HOURS ROUGHLY ALONG 77W/78W AND STRETCHING FROM THE JAMAICA CHANNEL TO 32N...HAS BECOME CUT OFF FROM ITS SUPPORT LARGE-SCALE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 32N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF NICARAGUA... COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA...TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HAITI. EVERYTHING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THAT LINE IS UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE REST OF NICARAGUA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE WIND FLOW IS EASTERLY...MOVING THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY WESTWARD EVERYWHERE TO THE EAST OF 73W. THE WIND FLOW TO THE WEST OF 73W IS LARGELY NORTHEASTERLY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN INLAND AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PANAMA TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...AS THE CLOUDS REACH LAND WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS THAT ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS ARE FOR WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST- TO-EAST FROM 20 TO 30 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 9 TO 13 FEET. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST MIAHSFAT2 FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THIS SITUATION. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE LAST 48 HOURS ROUGHLY ALONG 77W/78W AND STRETCHING FROM THE JAMAICA CHANNEL TO 32N...HAS BECOME CUT OFF FROM ITS SUPPORT LARGE-SCALE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 32N. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 32N BETWEEN 60W AND FLORIDA. ONE POSSIBLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER APPEARS TO BE NEAR 27N74W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N72W 20N71W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 16/1200 UTC WAS 1.51 INCHES. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N72W 20N71W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 57W FROM 22N TO 30N. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 22N TO 28N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 25N TO 30N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT