000 AXNT20 KNHC 142353 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT WED MAR 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 6N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N15W TO 4N25W ...PASSING THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 32W...TO BRAZIL AT 2S44W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-3S BETWEEN 24W-28W. RAINSHOWERS ARE FURTHER W FROM 3N-4S BETWEEN 30W-45W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC... 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N88W. 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF. SOME LOCALIZED THICK SEA FOG IS PRESENTLY ALONG THE COASTS OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...50 KT NW FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE N OF 26N AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT... THE SEA FOG TO LAST A FEW MORE HOURS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER INLAND COLOMBIA NEAR 7N77W. A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N57W. THE RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS 10-15 KT NE SURFACE FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO... HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER COSTA RICA... W HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA EXCEPT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM THE ATLANTIC. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1033 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 33N57W. A 1022 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N39W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 30N38W TO 28N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1028 HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 37N25W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 73W-78W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-60W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE FRONT. EXPECT... SHOWERS AND CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 9N-14N W OF 57W. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWERS OVER THE N BAHAMAS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA