000 AXNT20 KNHC 140548 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAR 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA WITH THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 5N10W CONTINUING ALONG 2N17W 2N22W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 28W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3S42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 20W-40W AND FROM 1N INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA BETWEEN 47W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS INLAND OVER MEXICO TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES GIVING THE GULF NW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 14/0300 UTC EXTENDING FROM 22N90W TO NW GUATEMALA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC AND A 1030 MB HIGH E OF BERMUDA TO ALONG THE N GULF COAST COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. SE TO E RETURN COVERS THE GULF WHICH IS CONVERGING WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 86W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA... WEAK UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO 17N79W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 18N TO INLAND OVER HONDURAS BETWEEN 83W-87W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. THE LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR W ATLC ALONG 79W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W TO BEYOND 32N61W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 50W ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 300 NM E OF BERMUDA. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N45W TO NEAR 22N62W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N39W TO 29N42W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG 26N46W TO 24N48W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 23N E OF 60W WITH A NARROW RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 23N34W TO BEYOND 32N26W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THE AREA OF DISSIPATING AFRICAN DUST COVERING THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM THE ITCZ TO 28N E OF 46W. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH SUN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW