000 AXNT20 KNHC 102338 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT MAR 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS TROPICAL AND WEST AFRICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N18W TO 2N24W. A 1009 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 11N20W. THE SURFACE TROUGH...NOR THE LOW CONTAIN ANY CONVECTION. THE ITCZ IS ANALYZED FROM 2N25W ALONG 1S35W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 2S43W. SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT IS OBSERVED ALOFT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1017 MB LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF...RIGHT OVER THE MATAGORDA BAY TEXAS. THIS LOW IS DRIFTING INLAND TOWARDS THE N-NW...AND IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY SUNDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM THE LOW CENTER SOUTHWARD ALONG 94W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. CURRENTLY MARINE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE EASTERLY WINDS UP TO 20 KT EAST OF THE LOW AND AND FRONT. DESPITE THE BROAD MULTI LAYER CLOUDINESS OVER THE NW BASIN AND W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT... DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND ALSO N OF 27N W OF 93W. AS THE LOW DISSIPATES INLAND...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A REMNANT TROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... FAIR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM THE SW ATLC TO WESTERN PANAMA. AT THE SURFACE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN REACHING UP TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT IS NOTICED OVER THE FAR SE BASIN. THIS ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF EASTERLY TRADES IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 70W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W...CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 28N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO STATIONARY EXTENDING WEST TO NEAR THE FLORIDA COAST AROUND 28N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 50 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 10 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO EXPAND EAST. MODERATE TO STRONG E-NE WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT SLIDES OFF THE EASTERN CONUS COAST THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS NEAR 25N61W NOTICED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N60W TO 20N64W. A WEAK 1018 MB IS EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH AXIS NEAR 25N61W. DESPITE THE LOCATION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH/LOW...THE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 52W-60W...WHERE MAXIMIZED UPPER LEVEL LIFT AND DIFFLUENCE IS NOTICED. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA