000 AXNT20 KNHC 101144 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT MAR 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W CONTINUING ALONG 11N16W THEN S TO 3N18W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-35W THEN TURNS S OF THE EQUATOR TO INLAND OVER BRAZIL NEAR 3S42W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-14W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING ACROSS S MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA. HOWEVER...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AT 10/0900 UTC NEAR DAYTONA BEACH S OF CEDAR KEY NEAR TO 28N84W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 28N91W. A WEAK 1018 MB LOW DEVELOPED AT 10/0900 UTC IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N95W WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NE ALONG 29N93W THEN CONNECTS TO THE ABOVE STATIONARY FRONT. A SECOND STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE SURFACE LOW S ALONG 25N94W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. THE UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N W OF 90W TO INLAND OVER W LOUISIANA/E TEXAS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT/LOW TO INLAND OVER MEXICO AND S TEXAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 10/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 22N91W TO THE COAST OF S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD S OVER THE TEXAS INTO THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INLAND OVER LOUISIANA TONIGHT. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW ATLC SUN CONTINUING E EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WED. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA/HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA/PANAMA DOMINATING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE AREA W OF 68W. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT ACROSS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND LESSER ANTILLES GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N BETWEEN 59W-70W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND THE ABC ISLANDS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA PRODUCING FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WHICH ARE BANKING LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 85W. OTHERWISE FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO DIMINISH ACROSS ALL BUT THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC AT 10/0900 UTC NEAR 32N71W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 28N79W TO 24N81W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 26N. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO BEYOND BERMUDA BEING AMPLIFIED BY AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N56W ACROSS E CUBA/HISPANIOLA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N63W TO 23N64W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 55W-61W. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF 50W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 34N46W. A LARGE UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N41W COVERING THE AREA S OF 22N BETWEEN 28W-65W. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL SHIFT E ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH TODAY. COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WILL EXTEND ACROSS BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY AND FROM 32N58W TO 27N80W EARLY SUN THEN WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE LATE SUN. THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE SE INTO THE NW ATLC SUN CONTINUING E THROUGH WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW