000 AXNT20 KNHC 091746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST FRI MAR 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W THEN SW TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 17W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 4S28W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL AT 3S39W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120-150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ AXIS W OF 15W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CUT-OF LOW SPINS OVER SE NEW MEXICO PUSHING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN AND NW GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO NEAR THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AROUND 29N91W...THEN SW ALONG 27N94W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO N OF TAMPICO NEAR 23N98W. COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE BOUNDARY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 86W-93W. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN...INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE WRN ATLC. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING MAINLY SE-S SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SE OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS BEFORE STALLING AND SLOWLY RETREATING BACK TOWARDS THE NW. CARIBBEAN SEA... FAIR CONDITIONS REMAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS AFTERNOON...DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA FROM THE SW ATLC TO TO PANAMA. AT THE SURFACE...TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN REACHING UP TO GALE FORCE CRITERIA NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N E OF 70W. THIS FLOW IS ALSO BANKING UP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SOME WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF WRN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OCCURRING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD AND STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...ANCHORED BY A 1036 MB HIGH NEAR 35N50W. DESPITE THE LOW LEVEL INFLUENCE...A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH THE RIDGE ANALYZED FROM 28N62W TO 22N62W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE AXIS WITHIN 250 NM. THIS ACTIVITY IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 35N55W TO ACROSS HISPANIOLA. FARTHER EAST ...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION ALONG 32N28W TO 28N31W WHERE IT BECOMES A SHEAR AXIS TO NEAR 24N38W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 20 NM AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE ALONG THE SHEAR AXIS. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/CUT OFF LOW CENTERED NEAR 40N34W. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR WRN ATLC N OF 28N W OF 77W. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE WRN ATLC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA