000 AXNT20 KNHC 080546 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU MAR 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF NRN LIBERIA AT 7N11W TO 2N14W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 2N14W ALONG EQ20W 1N36W 1S43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE SE CONUS. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH OVER THE W ATLC. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE HIGH CENTER AND ACROSS THE GULF FROM NRN FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING STRONG E-SE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN RANGING FROM 15-25 KTS. DRY AIR ALOFT IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER EXCEPT FOR SOME LOW-LEVEL CLOUDINESS ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA COAST WHICH EXTENDS INLAND. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS SRN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING PLEASANT WEATHER TONIGHT DUE TO DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT...WHICH IS INHIBITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGES ARE TO EITHER SIDE ALSO ACCOMPANIES BY DRY AIR. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A FEW PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW MOSTLY ACROSS THE NRN CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ERN CONUS SUPPORTS A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1039 MB HIGH NEAR 36N63W...WHICH IS SUPPORTING STRONG WINDS ALONG THE FLORIDA E COAST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEARLINE IN THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N48W 25N63W 25N76W. LITTLE CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE AXIS BESIDES A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 61W-65W. THIS AREA IS ALSO AROUND THE ERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N66W TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA N OF THE SHEAR AXIS. FARTHER E...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N39W TO 23N41W WITH NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 40N35W TO 27N28W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 39N16W IS TO THE E SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE E ATLC. ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N37W TO 13N46W WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TO THE E TO W AFRICA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER FROM NE SOUTH AMERICA TO W AFRICA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON