000
AXNT20 KNHC 061805
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE MAR 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA 
AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W AND 4N23W. THE ITCZ 
CONTINUES FROM 4N23W TO 1N30W 1N35W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 
38W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 3S45W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 7N TO THE EAST OF 
53W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE 
WEST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF 
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA...TO 30N70W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST 
NEAR 28N81W. COMPARATIVELY DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF 
OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
A SEPARATE AND NEW MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING 
AND MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. BETWEEN 90W AND 110W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE SHEAR AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF 
HAITI TO NORTHERN COASTAL JAMAICA...T0 18N85W...TO NORTH CENTRAL 
HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION 
IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 19N75W-JAMAICA-18N80W-
16N84W AT THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST 
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION COVER THE 
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...WITHIN 60 TO 120 NM ON EITHER 
SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 24N78W...JUST OFF THE COAST 
OF ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO 20N88W IN THE COASTAL 
PLAINS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHWESTERN 
END OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE 
ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IT REACHES TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO AND 
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO JAMAICA AND TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W 
AND 79W ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING 
FROM 11N TO 16N FT. THE GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 
PRESENT FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W 
AND 80W...WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15 TO 19 FEET.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 67W SUPPORTING A 
PAIR OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES. THE PRIMARY FRONT HAS BECOME 
STATIONARY AND ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N60W EXTENDING 
TO 24N73W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS INTO A SHEAR AXIS TO ERN CUBA AT 
22N79W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM BEHIND THE FRONT AND 
SHEAR AXIS. THE SECONDARY COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N69W 
TO 29N80W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG 
THE AXIS. THE CENTRAL ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING 
AROUND A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 34N44W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NE CARIBBEAN TOWARD THE NE 
TO N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS TO THE S OF 
THE AZORES CENTERED NEAR 31N30W WITH AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE UPPER LOW IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS 
FROM 28N-32N BETWEEN 29W-32W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS 
THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 7N20W.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT