000 AXNT20 KNHC 042316 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN MAR 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2300 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO 02N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 02N19W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 21W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-06N BETWEEN 08W-15W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN 18W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE GULF THIS EVENING AS WEST- NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO FILTER IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS. THIS FOLLOWS AS A COLD FRONT CLEARS THE REGION TO THE EAST AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENTLY THE FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING EAST OF A LINE FROM 25N81W TO 23N82W. ELSEWHERE A STRONG SURFACE HIGH...ANALYZED AS A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE MODERATE TO FRESH NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALSO NOTED ON THE LAST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH DIVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SE CONUS BY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 70W WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING OFF THE EASTERN U.S. COAST DIPS A TROUGH AXIS INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO 16N85W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST NEAR 19N87W AND INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM WEST OF THE FRONT N OF 20N AND WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 20N. SE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CONTINUE WITH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 77W-83W. THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES STRETCH EASTWARD TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AS STRONG RIDGING IS PRESENT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE FRONTAL TROUGHING WEAKENS AND MOVES NE OF THE BASIN BY TUESDAY...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN OF SURFACE RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF 20N IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N75W. THE FRONT CONTINUES SW ALONG 27N78W AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N81W THEN ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AND ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...STRONG S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT GENERATING MODERATE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. OTHERWISE...STRONG N-NW WINDS FOLLOW TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT AS WELL AND SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 37N16W TO 30N33W TO A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 31N49W. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT BRIDGES THE RIDGE AND SLICES INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N38W TO 30N44W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN