000
AXNT20 KNHC 040532
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SUN MAR 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS THE TROPICAL REGION OF 
THE AFRICAN CONTINENT AND EXITS THE WEST COAST THROUGH SIERRA 
LEONE NEAR 7N12W CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 3N17W...WHERE IT 
TRANSITIONS TO THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUING WSW ALONG 1N30W TO THE 
NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 2S44W. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 125 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ 
W OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN 
CONUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA FROM THE NRN 
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 30N83W...SW ALONG 25N90W TO THE COAST OF 
MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING 
DATA SHOWS NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 
70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 27N. GUSTY NORTHERLY 
WINDS ARE OBSERVED WEST OF THE FRONT WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS 
OCCURRING S OF 25N WEST OF THE FRONT...GENERATING SEAS 9 TO 12 
FT. ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT AXIS...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 
UP TO 20 KT WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS EAST OF THE 
BASIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO 
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND DIVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS FROM TEXAS 
KEEPING N-NE WINDS STRONG THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A VERY DRY AND SUBSIDENT UPPER ATMOSPHERE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE 
CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE KEEPING 
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS...SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION 
ACROSS THE AREA. EASTERLY TRADES REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG WITH THE 
AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT LOCATED IN THE VICINITY 
OF THE COLOMBIA COAST. THIS OVERALL TRADE WIND FLOW TURNS 
CYCLONIC OVER THE FAR SW BASIN...PRODUCING A NEARLY STATIONARY 
CLUSTER OF LOW-TOP SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 15N BETWEEN 78W-82W. 
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE 
UPCOMING WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE WRN ATLC WATERS  
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ANALYZED INLAND ACROSS THE FAR ERN 
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. DESPITE THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT... 
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE NUMEROUS 
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ALREADY ENTERING THE FAR WRN ATLC N 
OF 30N W OF 77W. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDES THE FRONT 
WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT EXPECTED SUNDAY 
MORNING. EAST OF THIS APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS 
STRETCHES FROM THE IBERIAN PENINSULA SW TO NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS. 
WITHIN THIS SURFACE RIDE AXIS...A 1034 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 
MADEIRA ISLAND AND A 1025 MB HIGH IS NEAR 28N58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA