000
AXNT20 KNHC 032349
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT MAR 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO 
04N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
04N18W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 32W THEN TO 03S41W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 03N BETWEEN 27W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES AND U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT 
ANALYZED FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W SW ALONG 28N90W 
TO 26N94W TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR TAMPICO. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR 
IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE THAT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE 
FRONT N OF 26N. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVE IMPACT...STRONG 
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED WEST OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE 
WESTERN GULF WITH GALE FORCE CONDITIONS OCCURRING S OF 26N WEST 
OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE FRONT...MODERATE TO FRESH 
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST UNTIL THE FRONT SWEEPS 
EAST OF THE BASIN BY SUNDAY MORNING. A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AND DIVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS 
FROM TEXAS KEEPING N-NE WINDS STRONG THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS 
EVENING WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA 
NEAR 10N67W TO BEYOND 20N74W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY 
DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WHICH IS PROVIDING FOR RATHER 
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS CONVECTIVELY THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE 
HOWEVER...EASTERLY TRADES REMAIN FRESH TO STRONG WITH THE AREA 
OF STRONGEST WINDS LOCATED IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLOMBIA 
COAST. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST 
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE 
GREAT LAKES REGION AND MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THAT SUPPORTS A 
COLD FRONT ANALYZED INLAND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL 
GEORGIA THIS EVENING. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA 
INDICATES THAT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE 
OCCURRING N OF 30N W OF 75W OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE SW 
NORTH ATLC WATERS. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PRECEDES THE FRONT 
AND GALE FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY 04/1200 UTC...SUNDAY 
MORNING. EAST OF THIS APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM...ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS 
STRETCHES FROM THE IBERIAN PENINSULA TO A 1032 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 36N12W TO 32N23W TO 27N50W THEN WESTWARD TO NEAR THE NW 
BAHAMAS NEAR 27N75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN