000
AXNT20 KNHC 031802
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT MAR 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS TROPICAL AFRICA AND EXITS 
ITS WEST COAST THROUGH GUINEA NEAR 7N13W CONTINUING SW TO 5N17W. 
ITCZ THEN CONTINUES TO 00N35W TO S OF EQUATOR TO NE COAST OF 
BRAZIL AT 2S42W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM N 
AND 120 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS FROM 25W TO 39W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MAIN FEATURE IN BASIN IS HEALTHY COLD FRONT ACROSS NW GULF 
MOVING SE AND BRINGING STRONG NW WINDS TODAY INCREASING TO GALE 
FORCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH SPILL ACROSS CHIVELAS PASS 
INTO GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND STRENGTHENS TO STORM FORCE SUN. 
COLD FRONT REACHES STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY SUN WITH NEAR GALE 
FORCE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN EXCEPT EXTREME NW CORNER.  SEAS 
FROM 10-13 FT EXPECTED IN SE HALF OF GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT... 
INCLUDING BAY OF CAMPECHE.  SHORT WAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING COLD 
FRONT REMAINS OVER LAND IN SE CONUS WITH MOST CONVECTION JUST N 
OF COAST.  ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED OVER WATER 
ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER NW GULF BEHIND COLD FRONT LATE SUN AND 
SUN NIGHT WITH QUICKLY DIMINISHING WINDS W OF 90W.  STRONG NE 
REMAIN ENTRENCHED IN SE QUARTER OF BASIN THROUGH LATE MON.  
SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED S OF 25N E OF 90W SUN AND MON.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSES CARIBBEAN FROM LEEWARD ISLANDS 
DIAGONALLY TO NICARAGUA WITH VERY DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS ACROSS 
ENTIRE BASIN INHIBITING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM 
DEVELOPING.  EVEN WEAK THERMAL LOW PRES 1009 MB NEAR W COAST OF 
COLOMBIA IS UNABLE TO PRODUCE CONVECTION...BUT IS STRONG ENOUGH 
TO TIGHTEN PRESSURE GRADIENT TO FORCE NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 
ALONG NE COAST OF COLOMBIA.  NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED 
OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLICES BROAD MID TO UPPER 
LEVEL OVER OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE ATLC WEAKENING WELL ANCHORED 
SURFACE RIDGE.  ONLY SIGNIFICANT SCATTERED CONVECTION NOTED 
REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ZONE OF DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT UNDER 50 KT 
JET CORE FROM 18N TO 24N E OF 45W.  

RIDGE RETREATS EAST AS COLD FRONT EMERGES ACROSS FLORIDA SUN 
QUICKLY INCREASING WIND AND SEAS ON BOTH SIDES OF FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY.  SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG 
FRONT AS COLD ADVECTION MEETS THE WARM GULFSTREAM AND ATLC 
WATERS.       

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS N OF 31N BEHIND COLD FRONT WITH A STRONG NE 
TO E BREEZE N OF 24N.  ERN ATLC REMAIN UNDER BROAD AND STRONG 
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY 1032 MB HIGH SW OF PORTUGAL NEAR 
36N19W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLY BARNES