000
AXNT20 KNHC 011740
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU MAR 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1645 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 11N15W FROM WEST AFRICA TO 
6N19W.  THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THERE TO 0N29W TO 1S47W INTO 
NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SPANS THE GULF ALONG 27N THIS MORNING WITH 
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING.  SURFACE WINDS ARE 10 
TO 15 KT...EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND 
SOUTHWESTERLY NORTH OF THE RIDGE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS BEING 
ADVECTED FROM NE MEXICO OVER THE WESTERN GULF.  

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A PRONOUNCED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM AN EXTENSION OF THE 
BERMUDA HIGH NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN TO A 1009 MB LOW ALONG 
THE COLOMBIAN COAST NEAR 9N76W IS PRODUCING ENHANCED TRADEWINDS 
THIS MORNING.  THIS IS BEING CARRIED AS A GALE EVENT CURRENTLY 
FOR JUST OFFSHORE COLUMBIA.  THOUGH THE GRADIENT MAY SLACKEN 
SLIGHTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TEMPORARILY 
WEAKENING THE WINDS...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED FOR 
TUESDAY MORNING.  A WEAK LOW-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE 
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD LOW-TOPPED 
SHOWERS IN THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS SEEN BY 
THE GUADELOUPE AND MARTINIQUE RADARS.  THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE 
WATER IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES ENHANCED MOISTURE BETWEEN 55W AND 
65W SOUTH OF 17N.  CONTINUED PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY DURING THE 
NEXT DAY OVER THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS WELL 
AS NORTHERNMOST VENEZUELA WHILE THE WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES 
WESTWARD.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 
HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA...THOUGH THIS APPEARS TO NOT BE RELATED 
TO THE RAINY WEATHER IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE AZORES-BERMUDA RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC NEAR 
OUR NORTH BORDER WITH AN EASTERN HIGH OF 1031 MB CENTERED NEAR 
34N22W AND A WESTERN HIGH OF 1027 MB CENTERED NEAR 33N50W.  
GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE NE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF 
THE AREA.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXISTS FROM 28N64W TO 22N59W 
NORTHEAST OF THE CARIBBEAN IN CONNECTION WITH A VIGOROUS UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH JUST TO ITS WEST.  NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION 
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH...THOUGH 
THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS.  
THIS TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY AND 
CONTINUE TO CAUSE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.  FARTHER NORTHEAST...A 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N55W TO 31N42W WITH THE WESTERN 
HALF BEING CONSIDERED DISSIPATING.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE 
IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N43W TO 31N35W.  NO 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH EITHER FEATURE... 
THOUGH THERE ARE SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM OF 
BOTH THE FRONT AND TROUGH.  THESE FEATURES SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 
OUR AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LANDSEA