000
AXNT20 KNHC 011119
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU MAR 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NON-EXISTENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE 
COAST OF AFRICA. THE ITCZ IS ALONG 5N14W 3N18W 1N27W 1N35W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 37W...CONTINUING INTO NORTHEASTERN 
COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 2S47W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 42W AND 45W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE 
SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 27N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF 
MEXICO...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA...TO THE
MEXICO GULF COAST WITHIN 150 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE TEXAS 
BORDER. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CENTRAL 
AMERICA ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS 
WIND FLOW REGIME EVENTUALLY COMBINES WITH SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW 
THAT IS MOVING FROM BRAZIL AND VENEZUELA NORTHWARD...NEAR THE 
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING 
OBSERVED AND FORECAST IN THE WATERS THAT ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA 
COAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. SEA HEIGHTS ARE 
AND/OR WILL BE RANGING FROM 10 TO 14 FT. LITTLE CHANGE TO THESE 
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN 
TO 23N66W 20N69W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 15N74W IN THE 
CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 27N64W 26N60W 22N59W. 
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 21N TO 27N 
BETWEEN 55W AND 70W...AND FROM PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC TO 20N BETWEEN 64W AND 69W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 33N 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 31N44W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N44W TO 29N49W AND 
31N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N36W TO 27N44W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES ITS BASE NEAR 33N11W. THIS TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N14W TO 
27N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT