000 AXNT20 KNHC 281739 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 3N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N21W CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 30W TO 1S35W AND BACK ALONG THE EQUATOR TO 43W ENDING NEAR 1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1S-3N BETWEEN 28W-31W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 1S-2N BETWEEN 46W-51W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 45W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC TO THE ERN CONUS ALONG 90W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE BASIN ANCHORED BY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PATTERN IS PRODUCING LIGHT ELY WINDS ACROSS THE ERN GULF BECOMING SE ACROSS THE WRN GULF WHERE THE WIND SPEEDS INCREASE. SOME SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING 15-20 KTS. WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING CLEAR SKIES...THE NRN GULF IS OVERCAST WITH LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND FOG CAUSING LOW VISIBILITIES. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WAS ANALYZED ALONG THE TEXAS COASTLINE AT 1200 UTC...BUT HAS NOW DISSIPATED AS OF 1500 UTC. EXPECT SURFACE RIDGING TO REMAIN OVER THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE STRONG WINDS ARE SUPPORTED BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN LOW PRESSURES OVER S AMERICA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC. PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS THE W ATLC ALONG 71W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE FRONT NEAR THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA ALONG 31N79W TO 28N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE AXIS AND WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 60W. THE UPPER RIDGE IS SUPPORTING A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N55W. FARTHER E...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FAR NW ATLC TO AZORES ISLANDS. A BROADER UPPER TROUGH IS FARTHER S ALONG 40W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO UPPER TROUGHS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE AZORES TO NEAR 32N32W CONTINUING TO 27N45W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 25N57W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND TROPICAL ATLC IS UNDER MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS INFLUENCED BY A WEAK 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 30N23W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALSO ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 9N17W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON