000
AXNT20 KNHC 270537
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST MON FEB 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 6N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N17W TO 3N20W...THROUGH
THE EQUATOR ALONG 28W...INTO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR
3S40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 34W AND 41W...AND FROM
THE BRAZIL COAST TO 3N BETWEEN 46W AND 51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N
TO THE EAST OF 34W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...TO THE 
WEST CENTRAL GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N92W 22N93W 
19N92W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER 
THE AREA FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND 91W.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PART OF ELEUTHERA ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...TO THE
NORTHERN PART OF ANDROS ISLAND. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT 
CONTINUES FROM ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE FLORIDA 
KEYS TO 25N83W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 22N TO 27N 
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND 83W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE AREA.
GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AND FORECAST IN THE WATERS 
THAT ARE OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 74W
AND 77W. SEA HEIGHTS RANGE FROM 12 TO 14 FT. LITTLE CHANGE
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 
30N51W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N52W TO 28N60W TO 25N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 
25N68W TO 25N78W NEAR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM ANDROS ISLAND INTO THE FLORIDA 
STRAITS/SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N83W. BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE LINE THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N42W 24N58W 20N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 
31N15W...TO A 31N27W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A THIRD
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N46W...TO 14N58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT