000 AXNT20 KNHC 262330 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN FEB 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 3N19W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG EQ30W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 3S39W. ISOLATED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5S-3N W OF 26W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE EXTREME SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA TO NEAR 25N85W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A WARM FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 25N92W TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW NEAR 22N95W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO NEAR 18N94W. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF BASIN E OF 92W N OF THE FRONT... SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVING ACROSS N-CENTRAL BASIN. EASTERLY WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15-25 KT ARE OBSERVED N OF 23N. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NW AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH LATER TONIGHT...WHILE THE FRONT BECOMES DIFFUSE AND DISSIPATES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS ATLC SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS EVENING KEEPING THE BASIN UNDER MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA IS SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW REACHING GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS 12-14 FT ARE ANTICIPATED IN THIS REGION. CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADEWIND FLOW. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N55W CONTINUING SW ALONG 26N65W TO 25N72W...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY EXTENDING W ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE EXTREME SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM NW OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH OFF THE COASTAL WATERS OF NORTH CAROLINA. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC E OF THE FRONT IS DOMINATED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A BROAD 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N35W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THIS AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE W OF 75W THROUGH MON NIGHT AND DISSIPATE E OF 75W BY TUE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT THEN WEAKEN AND SHIFT E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA